El Niño looms over COP31 as record ocean heat raises questions about who pays the price of climate change

    COP31 opens with new alarming climate data, including record global temperatures and ocean heat, as well as a historic El Niño. Controversy over lobbyists continues. Here are the latest developments from Antalya. Who is paying the high price of extreme weather events?

    Panel inside COP31, image: Photo Agency – stock.adobe.com
    Panel inside COP31, image: Photo Agency – stock.adobe.com

    The opening ceremony of COP31, the 31st UN Climate Change Conference, took place on the morning of Monday 9 November. The series of Conferences of the Parties began in 1995, following the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, which was agreed upon three years earlier at the Earth Summit in Rio de Janeiro.

    Despite 31 international summits and the Kyoto and Paris agreements, greenhouse gas emissions have increased by 68%, while CO2 concentrations have risen from around 350 ppm at the time to the 426 ppm recently confirmed by the WMO. Let's look at the latest developments from Antalya, where the author is participating as an Observer remotely, via virtual attendance.

    Appeals from UN and UNFCCC leaders

    Strong appeals are heard at the opening of every COP. Among them were the words of UNFCCC Executive Secretary Simon Stiell, who stated: “COP31 must provide a decisive boost to solutions, translating existing global goals and national plans into concrete operational steps. And it must deliver practical solutions.” Stiell also spoke about the need for an agreement on the Just Transition Mechanism, which was left partially unresolved at COP30.

    Regarding the climate emergency, he specifically mentioned recent impacts, including the tragedy that struck the Himalayas in Nepal, as well as “an El Niño phenomenon of exceptional proportions”. Particular attention was also given to the issue of funding.

    UN Secretary-General António Guterres also mentioned El Niño: “We have entered a new era of extreme weather events. An El Niño of exceptional proportions is colliding with a planet already overheated by human-induced climate change.”

    More than 70 government leaders and heads of state are expected to attend the high-level session, including Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and Brazil's newly re-elected President Lula. Italy's Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni will be absent, with Environment and Energy Security Minister Gilberto Pichetto Fratin representing the country at the high-level sessions.

    The problem with lobbyists

    According to environmental organisations, the number of fossil fuel lobbyists could increase this year. Civil society participates in COPs in the broadest sense of the term, with everyone being part of both the problem and the solution.

    This includes environmentalists, the research community, young people, indigenous peoples, trade unions and workers, and the business world. This also includes oil, coal and gas companies. The problem is not their presence, but their numbers and influence.

    Can we discuss phasing out fossil fuels in a country that continues to invest in coal? This was the provocative question posed by a Turkish environmental and climate activist, which clearly illustrates the contradictions of the participatory multilateral process and COP31.

    It is no coincidence that Greenpeace Turkey put up a large banner on the beach in Antalya bearing the words “COP31: Keep 1.5°C Alive”, and had it photographed by satellite.

    Oceans and El Niño

    The first few days of COP traditionally focus on the release of updated climate data, which then forms the basis for negotiations. And, unsurprisingly, the WMO data once again confirms the urgent need for action.

    In its presentation of the updated State of the Climate report dedicated to COP31, the World Meteorological Organisation highlighted the heat accumulated in the oceans. According to preliminary 2026 data, updated to July, accumulated ocean heat is at a record high, and the global average temperature is 1.47°C above pre-industrial levels.

    El Niño could push surface temperatures and ocean heat even higher over the coming months, potentially leading to the 1.5°C threshold set by the Paris Climate Agreement being exceeded once again.

    The price of climate change

    The opening plenary approved the agenda, but the first diplomatic dispute has already emerged.

    The African states group requested the inclusion of a specific item to discuss how to triple adaptation funding by 2035, in line with a COP30 goal established in Belém. The request remains pending. The agenda does include the biennial programme on climate finance, but it remains to be determined when and in what form the money will actually arrive, whether through loans or grants.

    Reference of the news:

    GREENPEACE TÜRKİYE’NİN COP31 PANKARTI UYDUDAN FOTOĞRAFLANDI
    https://www.greenpeace.org/turkey/basin-bultenleri/greenpeace-turkiyenin-cop31-pankarti-uydudan-fotograflandi/

    WMO: State of the Climate Update for COP31
    https://public.wmo.int/resources/publication-series/state-of-climate-update-cop/state-of-climate-update-cop31